http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/04/06/ozy-middle-east-conflict/25354585/
A recent article in USA Today has outlined the major players in the Middle East and argues that there are five dimensions involved in the fighting: “Arabs vs. Persians, terrorists vs. regimes, terrorists vs. each other, Sunnis vs. Shias, democracy vs. authoritarian” are all at odds with each other, ensuring that the conflict in the Middle East is not nearly as black and white as widely believed. In fact, the conflict can be compared with the 30 Years’ War of the 17th century, which resulted in the drawing of the current European borders after thirty years of conflict regarding religious, social, political, and ethnic differences.
Similarly, the European colonial period in the Middle East resulted in the crude drawing of borders in the region, but not in accordance with ethnic and religious dispersion; rather, the borders reflected European interests there. The result? Ethnic tension that has been boiling for 100 years, since the end of World War One.
What does this mean for the rest of the world? The article posits that the United States will not be able to exert nearly as much power over the region as it does today. The consistent fighting supported by the US has made it difficult to convince opponents in the Middle East to establish diplomatic relations with the US, as such efforts have resulted historically in a military intervention. Instead, the US is now being pushed into alliances that did not seem possible in the past–such as the current alliance with Iran–to confront a common enemy: in this case, ISIS.
However, all hope is not lost. I think that the article is relatively pessimistic in stating that the chance for diplomacy has come and gone. I think that diplomacy is still the best option for the US to undertake as policy in the region, but it must do so quickly, while alliances are still being formed against a common enemy or enemies. Should the United States wait too long, however, those alliances may fall apart as tensions rise and extremist groups gain influence and control in the region. Therefore, it is important for the United States to consider alternative means of establishing stability in the region besides sending troops (which will only increase tensions) because there is still time to regain control of the Middle East before it falls completely apart.
Social Changes in the Middle East 